April 25, 2025
Note
This article was written 25 Apr 2025 on X, a week before the India–Pakistan aerial engagement; almost all of the speculations made in the article came out to be true and exact.
Pakistan’s GBADS (ground-based air defence system) is evolving into a densely layered ecosystem. At its core is the CLIAD (Comprehensive Layered Integrated Air Defence system), integrating LY-80/LY-80EV SAMs with IBIS-150 radars and fire-control radars operating in L-band — ideal for detecting low-RCS and terrain-masked threats. It’s mobile, modular, and multi-role. Strategic protection centres around HQ-9/P HIMADS (High to Medium Air Defence Systems) — a long-range system (up to 200 km) that offers high-altitude intercept capability and limited ballistic missile defence. Deployed around high-value areas, it forms the outer shield of Pakistan’s strategic air denial network. Tactical defence relies on HQ-16FE and HQ-9BE, offering 50–120 km engagement envelopes against fighters and PGMs. These feed into Pakistan’s Air Combat Control Centres (ACCCs), where radar data, EW inputs, and kill-chain decisions are fused for real-time response. Pakistan’s indigenous NRTC AM-350S 3D AESA radar enhances detection of stealthy, low-flying, and cruise missile targets — especially when layered with IRST systems and optical tracking units. The radar net is designed to resist jamming and function in degraded EM environments.
Despite this, 100% interception is tactically improbable. A low-altitude SCALP/SPICE hugging terrain at <40m or a BrahMos arriving at Mach 2.8 in terminal dive, offers a reaction window of ~20 secs. Interception probability ranges from 45–65%, depending on saturation & vectoring. The situation is not that good on Naval and Coastal side.
In real-world conflict, decoys, EW jamming, and terrain masking degrade radar picture. Even with robust radar layers and ACCC coordination, no modern AD system is leak-proof. The goal could be perfect defense - but it’s more about resilient response and absorption!
The real question is the day after – the second-order effects, the blowback, and the escalation ladder no side can descend alone when the blast wave hits the political calculus.